On paper the upcoming weekend’s worth of racing in Calgary is just another mountain bike World Cup. But if you happen to be one of a dozen North Americans still immersed in Olympic cross-country spot battles, stop No. 6 of the 2004 series could well be the most important race of the year. If things go well then that lifelong Olympic dream lives on. But blow up on the (ironically) Canada Olympic Park course and Beijing in 2008 becomes your best hope.

On the men’s side there’s plenty of intrigue for both the Americans and Canadians, who each have two start spots in Athens. In the case of the Americans, Jeremy Horgan-Kobelski is all but in based on his high UCI and World Cup rankings. But both Canadian spots and the other U.S. position are still very much up in the air.

Horgan-Kobelski is a career- and country-best 10th in the latest set of UCI rankings dated June 29, and sits 13th in the World Cup standings, all but assuring that he’ll qualify based on the No. 2 or No. 3 USA Cycling selection criteria (No. 1 is not in play). No 2 goes to the top ranked man in the UCI rankings on July 12, provided they are in the top 30. No. 3 goes to the top ranked rider in the World Cup standings, provided they are in the top 25.

As for that second spot, Jeremiah Bishop, Todd Wells and Adam Craig all still have a shot based on criteria Nos. 3, 4 and 5.

No. 3, which says the top ranked rider in the World Cup provided they are in the top 25, favors Wells if JHK remains the top American in the UCI rankings. Wells currently sits 36th in the World Cup standings, and while moving into the top 25 may seem like a huge gap to make up in just one race, he is only 37 points back of 25th place, and has what is likely to be a weak field in Calgary on his side. Nine of the current top 25 World Cup riders -- and 15 of the top 35 -- were no shows at the Mont-Ste-Anne round. And the T-Mobile team, which has four riders in the top 27 of the standings, went home after Mont-Ste-Anne.

Wells was 28th at that race, earning 48 World Cup points. Craig is the next highest placed American, at 42nd, while Bishop is currently 50th.

If neither Wells, Bishop or Craig gets in on criteria No. 3, then it’s on to No. 4, which says that any U.S. rider finishing in the top 5 of the Calgary World Cup is on the team. This may seem even more farfetched when you consider that hasn’t happened since Tinker Juarez finished fourth at round No. 9 in Plymouth, England, in 1995. But Craig did pull off a ninth-place effort in Quebec last week, and this will be a relatively weak field, so you just never know.

If neither of those scenarios plays out, it’s back to UCI rankings, which favors Bishop (selection criteria No. 5 says the slot goes to the top ranked U.S. rider in the UCI rankings, provided they are in the top 75). The Trek-VW pro currently sits 19th with 788 points, while Wells is 22nd with 725 (Craig isn’t a factor here, sitting 45th with 491 points). Who ends up on top there won’t likely be determined until July 11 at the marathon world’s in Austria.

As for the Canadian men, the race for the first spot is based on a rider’s two best World Cup results in 2004 – one from the first three rounds in Europe, one from the two rounds in Canada. Ryder Hesjedal leads here with a cumulative score of 134 points (13th at Fort William, 11th at Mont-Ste-Anne), with Seamus McGrath next with 114 (35th at Madrid, 8th at Mont-Ste-Anne). But when you consider that first place at a World Cup is worth 250 points, and that there’s a 100-point gap to fourth place, a lot of ground can be made up quickly, meaning none of the Canadian men are out of it.

This includes Roland Green, who’s in the throes of what has been a terrible 18 months. Last weekend at Mont-Ste-Anne he dropped out for what Trek team manager Tyler Pilger called “biomechanical” reasons, and he’s only finished one World Cup race this year.

“Basically he said his body felt good for the first couple laps,” explained Pilger. “But then he wasn’t going anywhere. Once the other Canadians passed him he figured it would be better to drop out and save himself for [Calgary].”

The second Canadian men’s spot will come down to a committee’s choice, which clearly favors Green and Hesjedal because of their previous big-race results. Green won back-to-back world titles in 2001 and 2002, while Hesjedal was second at the 2003 world’s.

“I think Roland needs to have a solid result, at least top 5 or top 6,” said Pilger. “Then I think they’ll see that he can still pull a result, and take into account his experience. We haven’t gotten any feedback [from the committee] but when they make the selection I don’t think they’ll want the guy who is coming in 10th all the time. They’ll look at the guys who have been at the top of the podium.”

The real dilemma comes if it’s McGrath or Geoff Kabush getting in based on World Cup results. That means the Canadian Cycling Association would be forced to pick between Hesjedal and Green. Got to figure Hesjedal gets the nod here because he’s done more recently, but it would still be a tough call.

The Canadian women’s picture is a bit clearer. They qualified three spots last fall and Alison Sydor has already secured one of those based on her second-place effort at last year’s world’s. Just like the men, the second women’s spot is based on World Cup results, and here reigning Canadian national champ Marie-Helene Premont is in command. The Quebec native has 400 points (2nd at Fort William, 2nd at Mont-Ste-Anne). The only way she could be overtaken is if Kiara Bisaro won the race in Calgary. But if that happened, Premont would surely get the nod as the committee’s choice.

More likely Premont will hold her World Cup lead, and it will come down to Bisaro and Chrissy Redden for the committee’s choice slot. Bisaro seems to have a solid advantage (she’s eighth in the current World Cup standings and 11th in the UCI rankings, to Redden’s 24th and 23rd), but if Redden pops a big result in Calgary and Bisaro has a terrible day things could get interesting.

Lastly there is the much-publicized battle for the lone U.S. women’s start spot. For much of the year, there had been at least four riders in the mix, but following the race in Mont-Ste-Anne only Sue Haywood and Mary McConneloug were still in contention. The winner here is based on UCI ranking and currently McConneloug (4th, 1281 points) leads Haywood (5th, 1280) by a single point. Alison Dunlap and Shonny Vanlandingham have been mathematically eliminated.

McConneloug and Haywood will settle their score over the next two weeks, first in Calgary and then at the marathon world championships. Final selections will be announced on July 12.

THE REST OF THE STORY
While the Olympic battles will grab the lead headlines, there’s lots else on the line in Calgary. In the four-cross, Frenchwoman Sabrina Jonnier needs simply to score a single point to lock up the overall season title. As it stands now Jonnier owns a 100-point lead over American Tara Llanes, Aussie Katrina Miller and Dutchwoman Anneke Beerten with two events to go (a win is worth 50 points).

Jonnier is also dominating the women’s downhill, winning last week in Mont-Ste-Anne to push her overall advantage to 192 points over Great Britain’s Tracy Moseley.

The men’s four-cross series battle could also be settled. Right now reigning world champion Michal Prokop is 29 points ahead of German Guido Tschugg. If Prokop can push that advantage above 50, it wouldn’t matter what happened at the World Cup finals in Italy in September.

Also of note is the return of American Brian Lopes. The former world champ broke his leg in a freak offseason ATV accident and has yet to race this year. But he'll change that in Calgary, contesting both the four-cross and downhill. Lopes hasn't done many DH races in the last couple years, but says he is going after the national title at the U.S. championships at Mammoth in September and needs to get some practice in.

In the men’s downhill, Steve Peat will be the man to beat. The big Brit has won two of the last three World Cup races, and owns a commanding 140-point advantage over Aussie Sam Hill. Missing from the mix will be Aussie Mick Hannah, who continues to nurse an ailing wrist. Hannah’s Haro-adidas team manager Mike King says his young rider is scheduled to see the doctor on July 13, and the situation will be reevaluated from there.

Finally, there are the battles atop the cross-country standings. Just as she did in 2003, Norway’s Gunn-Rita Dahle is way out in front, owning a 349-point lead over Merida teammate Irina Kalentieva (the pair are the only racers to win women’s World Cup cross-country events in the last two years – Dahle has 9, Kalentieva 1). Look for Dahle to lock up her second straight overall title in Calgary, solidifying her as favorite for the XC race in Athens.

The men’s race is far tighter, with three riders within 50 points of the lead. Reigning world champ Filip Meirhaeghe leads the way following his win last week in Quebec. Siemens-Cannondale teammates Roel Paulissen and Christoph Sauser are second and third.

Racing at the Canada Olympic Park, which sits just 30 minutes from downtown Calgary, commences Friday with the four-cross finals at 7 p.m. Mountain time. Saturday brings the cross-country, with the women headed out at 11 a.m., followed by the men at 2 p.m. Racing concludes on Sunday with downhill semifinals at 10 a.m. and the finals at 2:30 p.m.

Check back to VeloNews.com all weekend for reports, results and photos.

Here’s a look at the current overall World Cup standings heading into Calgary.
CROSS-COUNTRY
(through 5 of 7 events)
MEN
1. Filip Meirhaeghe (B), Specialized, 915 points
2. Roel Paulissen (B), Siemens-Cannondale, 870
3. Christoph Sauser (Swi), Siemens-Cannondale, 865
4. Jean-Christophe Peraud (F), Lapierre International, 590
4. Julien Absalon (F), Bianchi-Agos, 590
6. Jose Antonio Hermida (Sp), Multivan-Merida, 549
7. Bart Brentjens (Nl), T-Mobile, 491
8. Lado Fumic (G), T-Mobile, 451
9. Liam Killeen (GB), Subaru-Gary Fisher, 385
10. Manuel Fumic (G), T-Mobile. 316
NORTH AMERICANS
12. Ryder Hesjedal (Can), Subaru-Gary Fisher, 285
13. Jeremy Horgan-Kobelski (USA), RLX Ralph Lauren, 272
29. Seamus McGrath (Can), Haro-adidas, 172
36. Todd Wells (USA), GT-Hyundai, 147
42. Adam Craig (USA), Giant-Pearl Izumi, 122
44. Mathieu Toulouse (Can), Gearsracing.com, 118
50. Jeremiah Bishop (USA), Trek-Volkswagen, 106
52. Geoff Kabush (Can), Maxxis, 105
61. Michael Broderick (USA), Seven, 87
62. Ricky Federau (Can), 83
74. Max Plaxton (Can), Rocky Mountain-Business Objects, 62
77. Chris Sheppard (Can), Haro-adidas, 59
85. Jay Henry (USA), Specialized, 49
86. Greg Reain (Can), 47
86. Roland Green (Can), Trek-Volkswagen, 47 WOMEN
1. Gunn-Rita Dahle (N), Multivan-Merida, 1000 points
2. Irina Kalentieva (Rus), Multivan-Merida, 651
3. Annabella Stropparo (I), Italian National, 651
4. Marie-Helen Premont (Can), Rocky Mountain-Business Objects, 570
5. Alison Sydor (Can), Rocky Mountain-Business Objects, 510
6. Alison Dunlap (USA), Luna, 475
7. Barbara Blatter (Swi), Specialized, 465
8. Kiara Bisaro (Can), Gearsracing.com, 415
9. Mary McConneloug (USA), Seven, 347
10. Ivonne Kraft (G), Ghost International, 337
OTHER NORTH AMERICANS
11. Sue Haywood (USA), Trek-Volkswagen
24. Chrissy Redden (Can), Subaru-Gary Fisher, 192
27. Shonny Vanlandingham (USA), Luna, 170
27. Willow Koerber (USA), RLX Ralph Lauren, 170
33. Trish Sinclair (Can), Gearsracing.com
155 DOWNHILL
(through 4 of 6 events)
MEN
1. Steve Peat (GB), Orange, 815 points
2. Sam Hill (Aus), Iron Horse-MadCatz, 675
3. Cédric Gracia (F), Siemens-Cannondale, 609
4. George Atherton (GB), Muddy Fox-Animal, 590
5. Mickael Pascal (F), Maxxis-MSC, 550
6. Nathan Rennie (Aus), Iron Horse-MadCatz, 543
7. David Vazquez (Sp), Maxxis-MSC, 358
8. Fabien Barel (F), Kona Clarks-Les Gets, 320
9. Greg Minnaar (SA), Team G-Cross Honda, 269
10. Kirt Voreis (USA), Santa Cruz Syndicate, 268
OTHER NORTH AMERICANS
18. Dustin Adams (Can), Giant-Pearl Izumi, 147
30. Mathieu Laurin (Can), Giant-Canada, 84 WOMEN
1. Sabrina Jonnier (F), Intense, 797 points
2. Tracy Moseley (GB), Kona Clarks-Les Gets, 605
3. Marielle Saner (Swi), Maxxis-MSC, 587
4. Celine Gros (F), Morzine-Avoriaz, 570
5. Helen Gaskell (GB), 517
6. Vanessa Quin (NZ), 465
7. Anne-Caroline Chausson (F), Commencal-Oxbow, 460
8. Mio Suemasa (Jpn), Trek, 349
9. Anita Molcik (A), Arbo RSP Downhill, 293
10. Nolvenn Le Caer (F), 258
NORTH AMERICANS
18. Kathy Pruitt (USA), Luna, 160
25. Michelle Dumaresq (Can), Santa Cruz, 90
26. Lisa Sher (USA), Chumba Wumba, 83
27. Marla Streb (USA), Luna, 75
28. April Lawyer (USA), Maxxis-Puma, 71 FOUR-CROSS
(through 4 of 6 events)
MEN
1. Michal Prokop (Cz), Author, 120
2. Guido Tschugg (G), Fusion, 91
3. Cédric Gracia (F), Siemens-Cannondale, 80
4. Wade Bootes (Aus), Trek-Volkswagen, 70
5. Karim Armour (F), 68
6. Sam Hill (Aus), Iron Horse-MadCatz, 67
7. Kamil Tatarkovic (Cz), 64
8. Romain Saladini (F), Commencal-Oxbow, 52
9. Bas De Bever (Nl), Be One, 50
10. Chris Powell (USA), Specialized, 40
OTHER NORTH AMERICANS
14. Brian Schmith (USA), Mongoose-Hyundai, 30
16. Robin Baloochi (USA), 27
22. Mike (USA), Haro-adidas, 17
27. Eric Carter (USA), Mongoose-Hyundai, 10 WOMEN
1. Sabrina Jonnier (F), Intense, 170
2. Tara Llanes (USA), Giant-Pearl Izumi, 70
2. Anneke Beerten (Nl), Be One, 70
2. Katrina Miler (Aus), Jamis, 70
5. Anne-Caroline Chausson (F), Commencal-Oxbow, 50
6. Celine Gros (F), Morzine-Avoriaz, 45
7. Vanessa Quin (NZ), 42
8. Jill Kintner (USA), Yeti, 40
9. Diana Marggraff (Ecu), Zenith MTB, 35
9. Tracy Moseley (GB), Kona Clarks-Les Gets, 35
OTHER NORTH AMERICANS
13. Marla Streb (USA), Luna, 20
17. Michelle Dumaresq (Can), anta Cruz, 4
21. Lisa Sher (USA), Chumba Wumba, 2
23. Kathy Pruitt (USA), Luna, 1