The Mail Bag is a regular feature on VeloNews.com. If you have a comment, an opinion or observation regarding anything you have seen in cycling, in VeloNews magazine or on VeloNews.com, write to WebLetters@InsideInc.com. Please include your full name and home town. Letters may be edited for length and clarity.

---

Doing the math, part 2
Editor:
I'd like to respond to Steve Rempel's letter (see Wednesday’s mailbag: "Doing the Math"). I think he's got a good point about Tyler's Olympic doping test possibly falling into the margin of error.

But is there a statistician out there who can factor in Tyler's Vuelta experience? What are the odds of a particular athlete's blood doping tests falling into the margin of error for three consecutive tests between 385 Olympians and 180 Vuelta riders? I bet it's around 1 in a million.

John Teal
Manitou Springs, Colorado

Doing the math, part 3
Editor:
In regard to Steve Rempel's letter, I would like to add the perspective of a (former) statistician.

Steve states, "For the sake of argument, let's assume the test is 99.74 percent accurate. We might think a test that's 99.74 percent accurate is a pretty damn good one, but it means that 1 in 385 riders will exhibit a false positive, which would mean for a case like Hamilton's that the test is no better than flipping a coin."

Steve is making a mistake made by many intro-level statistics students - that of confusing the expected results with an individual one. Yes, if we did 385 tests, each of which had a 0.26 percent chance of producing a false positive, we'd expect one false positive. But this expectation has nothing to do with any individual test. The tests are (presumably) unaffected by the outcomes of the other tests - meaning that each time you get a result (false positive or not) the outcome of the next test is based on the same 99.74 percent chance of accuracy.

If we assume the 99.74 figure, Tyler's chance of a false positive is the same as any other rider’s - 0.26 percent.

Walt Wehner
Boulder, Colorado

Questions remain despite Tyler’s statement
Editor:
It seems there are still many questions regarding the Hamilton doping case, given Tyler's statement in the press. The first that comes to mind is: What about Santi'? Nowhere does Tyler address the most pressing issue – how on earth two riders on the same team with outstanding results in a culture of doping could both be falsely positive?

Follow-up questions all beg to be answered as well. Why did your team doctor recently quit and give up the fight? How is it possible that there is even a question about your blood if you never took any blood or never manipulated your blood in any way? With two riders positive and both claiming innocence, is it possible that there is something else that triggered the positive result, and, what would that something else be?

There are still many questions that cycling fans are asking themselves and each other every day, and this is the major problem with cycling. It's not really a matter of dirty or clean but the dark cloud of suspicion and doubt that hangs over the entire peloton. As we watch the races on television or in person, we can't help wondering if the beautifully colorful, snaking bunch isn't really the evil serpent in disguise.

Mike Trecker
Aspen, Colorado

Cycling-style sanctions would kill other pro sports
Editor:
Ted Leech wants to know how NBA, NFL and MLB players can get away with everything they do while cyclists are penalized so much more for less serious infractions ((see Wednesday’s mailbag: "Fair and equitable?"). Two words: Players’ union.

You couldn't field a team if all three professional leagues had the same drug standards and penalties pro cycling has. And don't get me started on how many titles would be stripped from those athletes who would have tested positive!

Don Varley Jr.
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

From ‘Survivor’ to ‘Celebrity Death Match’
Editor:
In response to Geert Aerts’ OLN reality-show concept (see Wednesday’s mailbag: “Velo Survivor”), let's go one better and have an entire UCI Celebrity Death Match! Lance versus Ullrich - sure! Preening Cipo’ versus pugnacious McEwen - excellent matchup! “Milquetoast” Virenque versus anyone - wahoo! The Claymation visual possibilities are tremendous!

Mark Paré
Prague, Czech Republic

---

The Mail Bag is a regular feature on VeloNews.com. If you have a comment, an opinion or observation regarding anything you have seen in cycling, in VeloNews magazine or on VeloNews.com, write to WebLetters@InsideInc.com. Please include your full name and home town. Letters may be edited for length and clarity.