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A Tour with many questions, but few answers

Published: Jul. 4, 2008
Will Evans rise to the occasion?
Will Evans rise to the occasion?
Photo: Graham Watson

When Lance Armstrong was winning the Tour every year, the only real question before the race was not “Who will win?” but “Can anyone get close to him?” Now, after two totally unpredictable Tours, both of them ruined by doping controversies, it looks like we’re about to start on another Magical Mystery Tour. All the same, it’s still fun trying to peek into the crystal ball.

Without defending champion Alberto Contador, and with no really clear favorite, it’s possible to make a case for at least a dozen different winners. The hot money is on last year’s runner-up Cadel Evans (see “2008 Tour betting odds”), but not everyone is sure of the Aussie’s credentials.

Contador’s team manager Johan Bruyneel, a distant observer this year and tipping Denis Menchov to win, even said in the current issue of VeloNews: “Maybe [the Tour organizers] want a guy who has no story. With all due respect to Cadel Evans, but he’s not a hero. He’s not an attractive rider. He’s not a star.”

Should Evans (and his Silence-Lotto team) wilt in the Tour media’s pressure-cooker, expect any one of the following to challenge for the final yellow jersey: Carlos Sastre, Alejandro Valverde or Samuel Sanchez from Spain; Kim Kirchen, Fränk or Andy Schleck from Luxembourg; Damiano Cunego or Riccardo Riccò from Italy; Denis Menchov from Russia; Stijn Devolder from Belgium; or Mauricio Soler from Colombia.

So let’s make a case for and against each of the 12 contenders in alphabetical order.

DAMIANO CUNEGO (Lampre)
FOR: Won the Giro d’Italia in 2004. On his Tour debut in ’06 he got stronger as the race progressed and ended up with the best young rider’s white jersey for 12th overall. Has sacrificed this year’s Giro to be totally prepared for the Tour. Showed he was ready by taking fourth overall at recent Tour of Switzerland with great climbing form. Strong teammates headed by hard workers Bruseghin and Szmyd. Has drawn the lucky race number 71.
AGAINST: Relatively weak time trialist. Untested as a true contender at the Tour.

2008 Tour betting odds

● 9/4 — Cadel Evans
● 4/1 — Alejandro Valverde
● 13/2 — Denis Menchov
● 12/1 — Carlos Sastre, Damiano Cunego
● 14/1 — Andy Schleck
● 25/1 — Stijn Devolder
● 33/1 — Kim Kirchen, Riccardo Riccò, Samuel Sanchez
● 40/1 — Roman Kreuziger, Yaroslav Popovych, Fränk Schleck, Mauricio Soler
● 50/1 — Vladimir Karpets, Christophe Moreau, Oscar Pereiro
● 66/1 — Mikel Astarloza, Jujo Cobo
● 80/1 — Sylvain Chavanel, Cyril Dessel
● 100/1 — Manuel Beltran, Fabian Cancellara, Vladimir Efimkin, George Hincapie, Thomas Lövkvist, Tadej Valjavec
(From Ladbroke’s of London, July 3, 2008)

STIJN DEVOLDER (Quick Step)
FOR: Strong time trialist and improving climber. Raced aggressively in the recent Tour of Switzerland. With Boonen not starting, Devolder’s teammates will be fresher to help him in the climbing stages. Tipped as a dark horse by former Discovery teammate Lance Armstrong.
AGAINST: Never ridden the Tour. Failed in the long uphill TT in Switzerland, and he looked too anxious on the mountaintop finishes there.

CADEL EVANS (Silence-Lotto)
FOR: Ridden three Tours and finished eighth, fifth and second. Place second in both of ’07 Tour’s time trials (later awarded the Albi stage after Vinokourov failed blood doping test). Shown more aggression and great climbing skills this year. Prepared totally for the Tour and placed second overall (to Valverde) in recent Dauphiné. Has seven teammates dedicated to his victory bid.
AGAINST: Showed some weaknesses last year when Contador, Leipheimer and Rasmussen were setting truly high tempo in the high mountains. Popovych is the only teammate who can help him in the high mountains

KIM KIRCHEN (Team Columbia)
FOR: Good all-arounder. Has growing confidence after placing eighth in last year’s Tour with strong performances on Galibier and Peyresourde stages. Won this year’s Flèche Wallonne by overtaking Evans in hilltop finish. Held leader’s jersey in recent Tour of Switzerland.
AGAINST: Only average time trialist and inconsistent in the high mountains — as shown in his poor ride on the lengthy Klausen TT in the Tour of Switzerland. Can he rely on young climbers Lövkvist and Sivtsov in the cauldron that’s the Tour?

DENIS MENCHOV (Rabobank)
FOR: His two victories in the Vuelta, fifth place in the recent Giro and sixth place in the ’06 Tour (he worked to a standstill for longtime race leader Rasmussen last year), prove he is a grand-tour natural. Good time trialist, but hasn’t won a flat one since ’05 Vuelta
AGAINST: After Boogerd retired and Dekker was left out, Menchov has doubts that his new back-up men have the ability to help him in the mountains. Lack the true spark of a Tour winner.

RICCARDO RICCÓ (Saunier Duval-Scott)
FOR: Exciting climber and great sprinter in uphill finishes. His great second place at this year’s Giro (behind Contador) shows he can contend over three weeks. Has a fit-again Piepoli to act as his third leg in the mountains, while Cobo and Jufre help make Saunier a true climbing team.
AGAINST: Average time trialist, but sixth place in Giro’s Urbino hilly TT show he has potential to improve. Will Riccò get through the crazy early stages without losing valuable time?

SAMUEL SANCHEZ (Euskaltel-Euskadi)
FOR: Probably the fastest descender in the peloton — will be a valuable skill should there be rain on this Tour. Teammates Astarloza and Zubeldia placed top 10 in last year’s Tour, but it’s Sanchez who has the punch to shoot for the podium. At ’07 Vuelta, he won two mountain stages and the final flat TT to place third overall. Like Sastre, he has been saving himself for an assault on the Tour.
AGAINST: This is his Tour debut, but he knows the terrain from regular appearances at Paris-Nice.

CARLOS SASTRE (CSC-Saxo Bank)
FOR: Mr. Consistency gets better every year, and in ’07 he was fourth at the Tour and second in the Vuelta. He has one of the strongest teams in the race, especially with the Schleck brothers also being overall contenders. Has had a quiet early season to focus his attention on the Tour (and Vuelta).
AGAINST: His relatively poor time trialing has kept him from climbing on the Tour podium. Lacks the snap that can make the difference in the mountaintop finishes.

ANDY SCHLECK (CSC-Saxo Bank)
FOR: Great climber, promising time trialist. His grand tour debut saw him take second to an unbeatable Di Luca at the ’07 Giro. Even riding shotgun for brother Fränk he came in sixth at the recent Tour of Switzerland.
AGAINST: Making his Tour debut, and admits he is at the race to learn and observe.

FRÄNK SCHLECK (CSC-Saxo Bank)
FOR:On his day, he is a great climber and is not afraid to attack. In his two Tours, he has placed 11th and 17th while riding as a helper for Sastre. A strong performance in the recent Tour of Switzerland.
AGAINST: Relatively poor time trialist, and still seems content at riding back-up to Sastre — unless the Spaniard shows in this Tour that he is not ready for the big climbs.

MAURCIO SOLER (Barloworld)
FOR: Probably the best climbing talent to appear since the great Colombian climbers of the 1980s. He set records last year for climbing the Colombière and the Galibier — and also showed he ride strongly on his own in long breakaways. He’ll get much stronger support in the mountains this year, especially from veteran countryman Cardenas and the newcomers, Augustyn from South Africa and Froome from Kenya (though he has dual nationality an now has a British racing license).
AGAINST: Still very inexperienced. A wrist injury stopped him before the ’08 Giro reached the mountains, so his prep for the Tour has basically been training back home at high altitude. Will that be enough?

ALEJANDRO VALVERDE (Caisse d’Épargne)
FOR: A natural winner (especially in uphill sprints), and a talented but erratic climber. Ever improving time trial skills. Won the recent Dauphiné by taking early lead and defending well in the high mountains. Has strong, experienced teammates and directors to give him confidence.
AGAINST: Finished only one of three Tours (taking sixth last year), and as lacked the final push to win the Vuelta (second in ’06). Still vulnerable in the flat time trials.