On Tap at AToC: Stage 8 – Palomar
Published: Feb. 22, 2009
Too much? Too early in the year? Too late in the race? We'll find out.
Ever since the Amgen Tour of California organizer Medalist Sports began mapping out the 2009 course about a year ago, rumors started circulating about their plan to include a climb up 5,123-foot Palomar Mountain near San Diego. The rumors about its inclusion turned to speculation about its effect when the plan was confirmed: the peloton would indeed tackle the 13-mile-long climb midway though stage 8’s 97-mile course between Rancho Bernardo and Escondido.
Some people say Palomar is too tough of a climb to include on the final day of a race in February. Others say it won’t have too much effect on the overall classification because it comes too far from the stage finish. All those rumors and speculation come to an end on Sunday when the 97 riders who have survived this week’s brutal fourth edition of the Amgen Tour shift onto the small ring at the base of South Grade Road at about 2 p.m.
The local media are reporting that 3,000 spectators have camped out on the mountain overnight, just like fans do on L’Alpe d’Huez at the Tour de France. If the reports are true, those spectators might get a little insight into what will happen at the Tour itself this July. They will also see a lot of riders having a hard time, especially if race leader Levi Leipheimer’s Astana teammates ride the fast tempo needed to squash potential attacks from the men who are still within shooting distance of Leipheimer’s yellow jersey: Dave Zabriskie of Garmin Chipotle (second at 36 seconds), Michael Rogers of Columbia-Highroad (third at 45 seconds) and Jens Voigt of Saxo Bank (fourth at 1:10).
VeloNews' Daily Picks
Using the highly scientific method of arguing over drinks, the VeloNews editorial team assembled the following predictions for the stage podium:
1. Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas). WHY: He’ll get over the climbs okay, and he has the incentive to give a stage win to his team’s U.S. bike sponsor Cannondale.
2. Fränk Schleck (Saxo Bank). WHY: He showed he was on good form with his attack in Pasadena on Saturday, and the former Alpe d’Huez stage winner is far enough behind on GC (4:09) that he will get a little freedom of movement.
3. Robert Gesink (Rabobank). WHY: Another top climber, the Dutchman has the incentive to give his Rabobank sponsor a stage win as well as the Best Young Rider jersey.
THE PRIOR PICKS
The VeloNews team picked Peter Weening to win stage 7 in Pasadena; he came in third.. Our celebrity stage podium picker of the day Chris Gutowsky, president of VéloSport Vacations. The score* was: VeloNews 1, Gutowsky 0. On GC, with one stage to go, VeloNews leads the daily celebrities by a score of 19 to 13.
* Using our tried-and-true scoring system from the Tour de France, where you get 1 point for the right name in the wrong podium spot, and 3 points for the right name in the right spot.
Making a hard pace shouldn’t be a problem for Astana veterans like Chechu Rubiera, Yaroslav Popovych, Chris Horner … and Lance Armstrong. Just as he promised, Armstrong, who’s sitting in sixth place overall, has worked diligently for teammate Leipheimer throughout the race, so it would be a thrill for the fans to see the seven-time Tour champ pulling the lead pack up Palomar — a climb that has an hors-catégorie rating and 21 switchbacks just like L’Alpe d’Huez.
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VeloNews.tvArmstrong knows the Palomar climb very well. He first rode up it 20 years ago when he was a teenage triathlete training with tri’ champs like Scott Tinley, Mark Allen and Mike Pigg on the weekly 100-mile ride that included the mountain. And when he raced for Eddie Borysewicz’s Subaru-Montgomery team in 1990, the early-season training camp also included Palomar — as well as the short steep Cole Grade that the Amgen Tour peloton will tackle 21 miles from the stage finish.
“I recorded my highest ever heart rate on Cole Grade,” Armstrong said a few weeks ago. “It was 209.” Maybe he should have told the organizer that because they have given the 2.4-mile climb a derisory Cat. 4 rating.
And in his press conference in Pasadena Saturday evening, locally based Floyd Landis, who trains in the hills north of Escondido, said, “I don’t know how many will be together at the bottom of Cole Grade. It is a 10- to12-minute climb, and there’s a ways to finish. From the top, it’s rolling, not flat, and then downhill; if there is a decisive place in the race, that could be it. If somebody wants to get time, that would be it. We’ll have to wait and see how the peloton looks at the bottom of the climb, and if it goes the traditional way.”
With 30 miles of racing, including a Cat. 4 and a Cat. 3 climb, before the stage reaches the foot of Palomar, there will be plenty of time for an early breakaway to form. Such a break could include contenders’ teammates who want to get ahead before the giant climb, and then potentially be at the front to help their team leaders on the 54 miles of racing that remain after the Palomar summit. But the chances are that Leipheimer, Armstrong and company will be simply too strong to entertain any missteps.
What should be more informative will be to see how potential grand tour contenders like Rogers, Christian Vande Velde of Garmin, Robert Gesink of Rabobank, Fränk Schleck of Saxo Bank and Carlos Sastre of Cervélo TestTeam handle themselves on Palomar against the Astana army. And the fans up on the mountain will also be rooting for their home favorites Zabriskie and Tom Danielson of Garmin, George Hincapie of Columbia, Ben Jacques-Mayne of Bissell, and Landis of OUCH p/b Maxxis.
One interesting sidelight could be the battle for the KOM jersey. After Paco Mancebo’s unfortunate crash Saturday, his Rock Racing teammate Tyler Hamilton will be trying to get in the early break to make up his 7-point deficit on new KOM leader Jason McCartney of Saxo Bank. But the day’s key moves might be made on the 30 miles of mainly descending roads from the top of Palomar to the foot of Cole Grade.
What doesn’t seem in doubt is that, barring accidents, Leipheimer will be crowned the champion of his third consecutive edition of what has been a magnificent Amgen Tour of California.
In addition to following our live text coverage of stage 8 as it unfolds, and results and stories afterward, be sure to check out our new video show, VeloCenter, for analysis, highlights and tech features from each day’s stage.
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