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World's road race preview: The Petacchi gamble

Smaller world’s teams could work against the Italians on Sunday

Italy’s national team manager Franco Ballerini made his name as a tacticalgenius in 2002 by building his world championship squad around sprinterMario Cipollini. Boldly, Ballerini did not include four riders whowere in the top 10 of that year’s UCI world rankings — Michele Bartoli,Davide Rebellin, Franco Casagrande and Dario Frigo — because he wantedriders who could unselfishly set a fast tempo for 250km and set up Cipollinifor the win. The gamble paid off beautifully, with the Lion King roaringhome on Belgium’s flat Zolder circuit well clear of two other world-classfield sprinters, Robbie McEwen of Australia and Erik Zabel of Germany.Cipollini retired this past May, so Ballerini is calling upon Italy’scurrent hot sprinter, Alessandro Petacchi (25 victories this year), tobe the unique leader of the azzuri at the world elite men’s road championshipon Sunday. Again, Ballerini is leaving at home many of the world’s topriders, including Ivan Basso, Damiano Cunego, the current leader of theUCI ProTour Danilo Di Luca and Giro winner Paolo Savoldelli.But will this latest gamble be as successful as the 2002 experience?As with any strategy, the tutti per uno plan has its pros and cons.On the plus side, the 31-year-old Petacchi has a lot going his way.First, he has known since taking his first classic victory at Milan-SanRemo in March that he will lead the Italian world’s team. Second, thatwin proved Petacchi could survive a 290km race and still launch his incomparablesprint, just as he has won shorter races, such as the nine stage wins hescored at the 2004 Giro d’Italia. And third, his form has been coming toa peak at the Vuelta a España, where he won five stages, easilydefeating three of his likely rivals in Madrid: Zabel, Tom Boonen of Belgiumand Thor Hushovd of Norway.On the debit side, several things are different from 2002. First, the21km circuit through downtown Madrid has four short hills (two of 1.5kmat 5 percent, two of 1km at 2 percent) compared with just one small riseat Zolder.Second, Petacchi will have only eight teammates, three fewer than Cipollinienjoyed, because the UCI has cut the team size for the world’s top 10 nationsfrom 12 to nine riders, to accommodate more countries (43 are expectedon the start line Sunday, compared with 38 last year in Verona) and givesmaller nations more riders. This will make it more difficult for the Italiansto control the race, and Petacchi could be left with only three or fourcolleagues for the crucial final and 13th lap of the 275km race.Also, this year’s course looks likely to be more favorable to a snappierfinisher like McEwen or Spain’s Alejandro Valverde than power sprinterPetacchi. Whereas the Zolder championship finished on a smoothly engineeredmotor-racing circuit that favored Cipollini’s big lead-out train, the Madridfinish is a cross between Philadelphia’s USPRO Championship finale on BenFranklin Parkway and the Tour de France’s traditional last stage on theChamps-Élysées.The final 3km of the Madrid circuit is along the straight and wide Paseode la Castellana. But the peloton will race for 2.6km down one side ona slight decline into a traffic circle like Philly’s Eakins Oval, beforemaking a 180-degree sweep to head back up to the finish line less than400 meters away. Just as there have been surprising finishes at Philly(remember Eddy Gragus in 1996?) and Paris (including Alexander Vinokourov’sshocking stage victory at this year’s Tour), so the Madrid roundabout couldproduce a late solo win like that scored by the then unknown Oscar Freireat Verona in 1999.Freire, who went on to snag rainbow jerseys in 2001 and 2004, cannotdefend his title because of complications from saddle-sore surgery. Sothe home country is hoping that its 2003 gold and silver medalists, IgorAstarloa and Valverde, who seem to be fully recovered from injuries, togive the Spanish a fifth world championship in seven years.While Boonen, McEwen and Zabel will also have the benefit of ridingon nine-man teams, Hushovd is the sole Norwegian in Madrid. Other outsiderson smaller teams are Sweden’s Magnus Bäckstedt (two teammates) andLuxembourg’s Kim Kirchen (solo). As for North Americans, Michael Barrywill have the support of two Canadian colleagues, Ryder Hesjedal and FrançoisParisien; and in the absence of top-10 ProTour stars George Hincapie, LeviLeipheimer and Bobby Julich, the U.S. has weaker support than should beexpected for team leader Fred Rodriguez.Be sure to tune in for LIVE UPDATESfrom the Elite Men's Road Race at 9:00 a.m. (eastern time in the U.S.)on Sunday, September 25, here on VeloNews.com

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ELITE MEN’S ROAD RACE
FAVORITES
Tom Boonen (B)
Robbie McEwen (Aus)
Alessandro Petacchi (I)
Alejandro Valverde (Sp)
Erik Zabel (G)OUTSIDERS
Igor Astarloa (Sp)
Magnus Bäckstedt (S)
Paolo Bettini (I)
Rubén Bongiorno (Arg)
Laurent Brochard (F)
Murilo Fischer (Bra)
Chris Horner (USA)
Thor Hushovd (N)
Kim Kirchen (Lux)
Jakob Piil (Dk)
Filippo Pozzato (I)
Fred Rodriguez (USA)
Max Van Heeswijk (Nl)
Peter Van Petegem (B)
Alex Vinokourov (Kaz)
Jens Voigt (G)
Fabian Wegmann (G)MAJOR ABSENTEES
Ivan Basso (I)
Damiano Cunego (I)
Danilo Di Luca (I)
Oscar Freire (Sp)
George Hincapie (USA)
Bobby Julich (USA)
Stuart O’Grady (Aus)
Jan Ullrich (G)

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